Gold at $4,755 — One Week Before the Fed, One Week Before Everything Could Change
Gold is steady near $4,755 per ounce today, Wednesday April 22, picking itself off Tuesday's floor where it closed at $4,763, down $41 on the day. The Tuesday slide came from a deceptively simple trigger: the US dollar strengthened on headlines that a second round of US-Iran negotiations was being arranged in Pakistan. Less safe-haven demand needed — sell gold, buy dollars. It is a trade markets have done five times already in April.
Overnight, the script flipped. Iranian IRGC-linked gunboats attacked three vessels in Gulf waters. Iran's foreign ministry officially stated it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz under any condition while the US Navy continues operations in the area. The Pakistan talks that caused Tuesday's dip have now effectively collapsed before they began — Iran cancelled its participation. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil moves, remains a contested waterway. Gold is recovering.
The more significant story for gold, however, is the one unfolding on April 28–29 when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington. The rate — currently 3.50% to 3.75% — is almost universally expected to hold. What matters is the language. With energy prices elevated due to the Gulf war, inflation remains a stubborn concern. The Fed's new Chair is navigating one of the most complex monetary environments in decades: an oil shock, a war, a fragile jobs market, and a president who wants lower rates. Chair Powell's press conference on April 29 will be dissected word by word by gold traders around the world. Any signal of cuts coming by June or July would send gold sharply higher.
This Thursday, US PMI data gives the first real read on how the economy is performing in April. Friday brings University of Michigan inflation expectations. Every data point now feeds into April 29.
Today's prices: 24K — $152.93/gram | 22K — $140.19/gram | 21K — $133.06/gram Prices in USD. Indicative only. Please verify in store.
