Gold Near 12-Day Highs as Iran Deal Takes Shape — But NFP This Morning Holds the Final Key
The beacon burns brighter today. Gold is trading near $4,739 per ounce — approaching its highest level in nearly two weeks — as the Strait of Hormuz crisis moves from active conflict toward tentative resolution for the first time since the war began in late February. The catalyst was Tuesday's announcement from the White House that "great progress" had been made toward a peace deal with Iran, pausing the US Navy's "Project Freedom" operation and sparking a powerful mid-week rally that lifted gold more than 3% on Wednesday alone.
The details of the emerging agreement matter for gold buyers to understand. According to Axios's reporting, the proposed Memorandum of Understanding would require Iran to halt nuclear enrichment. In return the US would lift sanctions and unfreeze billions in frozen Iranian assets. Both sides would lift restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, reopening the world's most critical oil waterway to normal commercial traffic. Oil immediately fell below $100 per barrel on the news — the first sub-$100 print in weeks — and equity markets surged, with the Dow crossing 50,000 for the first time ever. The oil-inflation-gold chain reaction that had weighed on bullion since February began to reverse.
One complication: Trump simultaneously warned that "if they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be at a much higher level and intensity than it was before." The deal is not signed. Iran still needs to formally respond to several key points. Incidents continued in the strait on Thursday. This is progress, not peace. Gold's recovery reflects hope, not certainty — which is precisely why it has room to run further if the deal finalises.
This morning's April Nonfarm Payrolls report is the final market-moving event of the week. Markets also receive the University of Michigan's May inflation expectations survey today. Consensus expects NFP around 60,000–75,000, well below March's strong 178,000. A weak print confirms that the energy shock has begun damaging the US labour market — making the stagflation scenario real and gold's case compelling. A strong print above 150,000 could temporarily reverse some of this week's gains.
