Here is every relevant number for Tuesday May 12, 2026, in one place.
Gold spot price: $4,750/oz — recovering from Monday's drop to $4,670 after Trump rejected Iran's proposal as "totally unacceptable." Up approximately $80 from the Monday low.
CPI consensus (April): 3.7% YoY headline / 2.7% YoY core. This is the inflection point. March was 3.3% YoY — a 0.9% monthly jump. April is expected to be even higher because of oil at $96–$106/barrel through the month.
The oil-inflation equation: Brent averaged approximately $101/barrel in April. Every $10 rise in oil adds roughly 0.15–0.20 percentage points to headline CPI. April's oil surge adds approximately 0.35–0.40 points above March's reading, consistent with the 3.7% consensus.
Rate cut probability (CME FedWatch): Only 4.2% probability of a June rate cut. 95.8% expect rates to stay at 3.50–3.75%. Even one rate cut generates approximately 60 tonnes of new gold ETF demand within six months, per Goldman Sachs research. At current rates, that demand is absent.
Gold down since war began (February 28): Approximately 12% from peak. Approximately 15.2% below January all-time high of $5,595.
Year-on-year gold return: Still +41.86%. Down in war. Up over the year.
Iran's rejected proposal: Tehran offered to move enriched uranium to a third country. Refused to dismantle facilities. Trump's response: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Ceasefire described as on "massive life support." US military officials briefing Trump on potential operations.
Hormuz status: Effectively closed. US blockade has turned away 58+ commercial vessels. Oil elevated at ~$101/barrel (Brent).
What breaks the current pattern? A Hormuz reopening drops oil to $80–85, CPI falls to 2.5–3%, rate cuts re-enter pricing, each 25bp cut generates 60 tonnes of ETF demand, and institutional targets of $5,400 (Goldman Sachs) and $6,000–$6,300 (J.P. Morgan) become the tradeable reality, not a distant forecast.
Technical level to watch: $4,775 — a daily close above this level would confirm a breakout from the falling wedge pattern confirmed May 6. Below $4,696: support. Below $4,328: 200-day moving average.
Today's prices: 24K — $152.68/gram | 22K — $140.12/gram All prices USD. Pre-CPI release. Verify after 8:30 AM Eastern.
